Most traders who blow accounts didn't lose because their analysis was wrong. They lost because when they were wrong, they were wrong with too much money. Position sizing is the single most important factor in long-term survival, and most new traders completely ignore it.
ARIA recommends risking 0.5% of your account on every single trade, regardless of conviction level. That means on a $1,000 account, your maximum loss per trade is $5. On a $10,000 account, it's $50. This sounds conservative. That's the point.
"A 5R win is meaningless if a previous 10% risk loss wiped your motivation to keep trading. Stay in the game first."
| Account | Risk/Trade (0.5%) | TP1 Return (5R) | TP2 Return (7R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | $2.50 | $12.50 | $17.50 |
| $1,000 | $5.00 | $25.00 | $35.00 |
| $5,000 | $25.00 | $125.00 | $175.00 |
| $10,000 | $50.00 | $250.00 | $350.00 |
| $25,000 | $125.00 | $625.00 | $875.00 |
Even Phase A signals lose sometimes. A 70% win rate means 30% of trades are losses. If you size up on conviction and hit a loss streak, the damage compounds fast. At 0.5% risk, you can lose 10 consecutive trades and still have 95% of your account. At 5% risk, 10 losses leaves you with 60%. The math is brutal at high risk, and kind at low risk.
"The goal isn't to make the most on one trade. It's to still be trading in six months."